Republicans Face Tight Texas Races Amid Hispanic Voter Shift

Recent polling indicates that Republicans may lose a Texas statewide contest for the first time in over 30 years. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton in multiple surveys, including a Texas Southern University poll showing Talarico at 47% to Paxton's 46%. The gubernatorial race is similarly contested; while one poll shows Governor Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by four points, a ReconMR poll shows Hinojosa leading Abbott by the same margin.

This volatility is driven by a significant decline in Republican support among Hispanic voters, who now favor Democrats 2 to 1. Analysts attribute this reversal to economic concerns, specifically the rising cost of living linked to tariff policies and the war against Iran, rather than immigration. Additionally, Ken Paxton is reportedly facing defections from within his own party.

The trend extends beyond Texas. Inside Elections recently shifted a dozen race ratings toward the Democratic Party, including downgrading Republican Senator Susan Collins' Maine seat to a toss-up. Analysts link these broader Republican struggles to the declining job approval of President Donald Trump, which is eroding traditional GOP advantages in redrawn districts across Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.