The US Has Blockaded Iran in Five Domains. Each One Has Leaked.

In seven weeks, the United States has built a blockade of Iran that spans five domains. It began with financial warfare in mid-June, added a naval cordon in mid-July, and has since reached infrastructure, aviation, and — as of today — the land borders themselves. On July 31, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed persuading Iran's neighbors to close their border crossings, extending a containment strategy that now touches every route in and out of the country ^[1]. A nation with the world's largest navy is trying to close land borders. The reach is the tell. The naval layer was reimposed on July 14, when Trump ordered the blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed a 20 percent cargo transit fee on all Hormuz traffic ^[2]. CENTCOM has since redirected seven commercial vessels and disabled one ^[3]. But during the one-month pause that preceded the reimposition, Iran exported 80 million barrels of crude and refined products, generating roughly $6 billion ^[4]. Petroleum Minister Paknejad was blunt about the result.

Given that the structures foreseen for the continuation of oil exports have been maintained, the country's oil export process continues as before and, God willing, we will not face any problems in this regard. — Mohsen Paknejad

The financial layer actually came first. On June 10, Treasury launched "Economic Fury," targeting Iranian procurement networks in China and Hong Kong ^[5]. It has since sanctioned a shadow banking system run through Dubai-based financiers and Iranian exchange houses ^[6], an oil magnate's multi-billion-dollar shadow fleet ^[7], and — on July 29 and 30 — maritime insurance entities and six companies supporting Mahan Air across four countries ^[8]. Yet on June 22, Treasury issued a 60-day waiver allowing Iran to sell crude oil and petrochemicals through August 21 ^[9]. Secretary Bessent acknowledged the waiver's narrow reach.

No one other than China, who was already buying it when it was sanctioned, has bought it, so it's still trading at a discount to China, and the Iranians thus far have not been able to sell their oil because the buyers are a little weary of will it be re-sanctioned, will I get in trouble with the Treasury — Scott Bessent

The waiver keeps a channel open that Treasury itself concedes only one buyer uses — but that buyer is enough to keep Iranian crude moving. The infrastructure layer arrived on July 16 and 17, when US strikes expanded from military targets to civilian transport: a maritime surveillance tower at Chabahar port, two bridges in Bandar Khamir, and sites in Bushehr and Khuzestan provinces ^[10]. Defense Secretary Hegseth declared that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. But the commercial insurance market was already reshaping the strait on its own terms. War-risk premiums surged from 0.15 percent to 5 percent, daily Hormuz transits fell from 45 to 13, and traffic shifted almost entirely to Iran's own designated corridor, crippling the US-backed Omani route. The strait's de facto governance passed to Iran not through military action but through the price of insurance. The aviation layer followed on July 29 and 30, when Treasury sanctioned entities supporting Mahan Air across China, India, Russia, and Iran ^[8]. But international airlines had already begun suspending or delaying Middle East flights — Air France, Singapore Airlines, British Airways, and Lufthansa among them — on commercial grounds, not military ones ^[11]. Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths noted that European airlines were struggling to get insurance.

They are having difficulty getting insurance for operations. — Paul Griffiths

The suspensions created a de facto air blockade of the region, but one driven by underwriters, not by Washington. The land layer opened on July 23, when a US missile strike at the Shalamcheh Iraq-Iran border crossing killed two people and suspended operations for three hours — the first US kinetic action at a land border ^[12]. Today's Trump-Netanyahu discussion extends that logic to a full land blockade. But Pakistan and Iran are already institutionalizing a corridor that would undercut it: 2,000 trucks a day, a $10 billion annual trade target, railway upgrades through Taftan, and a customs hub designation that turns a border crossing into permanent infrastructure.

To achieve this goal [of $10 billion trade volume], in practice around 2,000 trucks or containers need to move between the two countries every day on average. — Eskandar Momeni

Vice President Vance, speaking on July 16, offered the administration's own acknowledgment of the naval layer's limits, and ruled out 150,000 ground troops for regime change ^[13].

You can bomb them, you can take away their radar, you can take away some of their drones and some of their missiles, but it’s just too easy to fire at ships in the straits. — JD Vance

The breadth of the overall campaign — finance, infrastructure, aviation, land — is the measure of that understanding. A strategy that worked at sea would not need to reach land. One that worked in finance would not need to reach aviation. And Iran is building the infrastructure for the next leak before the US can close the current one. The Pakistan corridor is being institutionalized at the bilateral level. Iraq is rerouting oil exports through Syria and Jordan by truck, with a US envoy himself coordinating a feasibility study for a pipeline from Basra to Ceyhan ^[14]. The shadow banking network Treasury is sanctioning — Dubai-based financiers, Iranian exchange houses — bypasses formal channels that sanctions can reach ^[6]. The race is between US domain expansion and Iranian route construction, and Iran only needs one to stay open.