The Region's New Fault Line Runs Through the Aegean

For two decades the region's security map was drawn with a single line: Iran and its "Shiite axis" on one side, the United States, the Gulf states, and Israel on the other. In February, that line was redrawn in one room. At the Knesset, Israeli lawmakers and visiting US congressmen stopped naming Iran as the organizing threat and named a new one instead — a "Sunni Muslim Brotherhood axis" led by Turkey and Saudi Arabia ^[1].

Over the two and a half years since October 7, we have witnessed a dramatic weakening of the Iranian Shiite axis and its replacement by a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood axis. — Ohad Tal

The thing they were naming had been under construction for months. In September 2025, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, a collective-defense pact on the NATO Article 5 model ^[2]. This month it got a new name — the Makkah Defence Alliance — a permanent secretariat in Riyadh and a first secretary general from Pakistan ^[3]. The answer was not long in coming, and it was not diplomatic chatter. In August, Greece and Israel signed the Achilles Shield air-defense deal — $3.6 billion, the largest in Israeli history — and the deal is described in terms that leave no room for ambiguity: it follows the Makkah pact, which Greece and Israel perceive as a security threat ^[4][5]. The counter-bloc did not form alongside the Makkah pact; it formed in answer to it. The two blocs are mirror images along a fault line that predates both of them. Turkey anchors one; Greece anchors the other. Netanyahu warned against anyone who fantasizes about re-establishing an empire, and Erdoğan answered that Turkey will not allow violations of its rights in the Aegean and the Mediterranean ^[5]. The rivalry is old. What is new is that it now has institutions, budgets, and hardware on both sides. The mirroring runs deeper than geography. The Makkah architects speak in the language of open recruitment — Fidan says all regional nations should come together on security, and Pakistan's Ishaq Dar notes that more countries now want to sign a similar agreement ^[6]. Six or seven Muslim-majority countries have expressed interest; Bangladesh says it would positively consider joining; Egypt is reviewing the legal requirements ^[3]. On the other side, the same open-door logic: the Knesset quadripartite of Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and the US, with Congressman Brad Schneider pushing the Gateway Act to formalize the bloc ^[1]. The two sides even share a habit of saying one thing while doing another. Fidan insists the alliance is aimed at no one in particular.

the alliance is not directed against any specific state and remains open to participation by friendly countries that adhere to the principles. — Hakan Fidan

He has also, separately, called Netanyahu something less diplomatic.

Netanyahu, who has become a common enemy of humanity, the international community and security, is not a person to be taken seriously. — Hakan Fidan

But the bloc being answered is not itself whole. In January, Saudi Arabia bombed a UAE-linked shipment in Yemen and accused Abu Dhabi of undermining its national security ^[7]. The UAE, aligned with Israel against Iran, is on a deliberately independent course, and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi keep deep economic stakes inside the United States ^[7]. Bangladesh's overtures are hedged: one adviser calls the pact positive, a state minister says Bangladesh is expressing interest, while the foreign secretary insists no invitation exists ^[8]. And Saudi Arabia is simultaneously running a separate non-aggression track with Iran, a Helsinki-model pact that aims to reduce reliance on external powers ^[9]. The region has split into two architectures, the second built in direct answer to the first. The counter-bloc is real — it has hardware, budgets, and a named adversary. But the bloc it answers is being built and contested at the same time. The new frame is operative before it is coherent.