The Separatists Smith Needs to Lose

Jeffrey Rath, the lawyer for Alberta's separatist movement, put the ultimatum in terms no premier could ignore.

If she doesn’t put our question on the ballot, she will have proven herself to be a liar and she has to resign. — Jeffrey Rath

The threat lands because Smith has spent months doing exactly what Rath fears. She chose a "remain in Canada" question for the October 19 referendum rather than the secession question the separatists spent a year gathering 222,597 signatures for ^[1][2]. When a court quashed the separatist petition for failing to consult First Nations, Smith bypassed the ruling entirely by using a rival pro-Canada petition — the "Forever Canadian" campaign, which gathered more than 400,000 signatures — as the vehicle to set the ballot wording ^[2][3]. And she is preparing a government report, due this month, that will put a $400 billion price tag on separation — roughly $80,000 per Albertan — along with $25 to $50 billion in annual recurring costs ^[4].

People need to understand what it would be to set up a fully functional national government from scratch. — Danielle Smith

None of this looks like the behavior of a premier riding a separatist wave to victory. And yet the separatist threat has already delivered Smith the most concrete federal concessions Alberta has seen in years. In late May, Prime Minister Mark Carney reached an agreement with Smith to fast-track a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast and adjust federal climate policies — a deal extracted in the shadow of a referendum that had not yet been scheduled ^[3].

This type of uncertainty is unhelpful for long-term investment decisions. — Mark Carney

The two halves of this arrangement sit side by side, not in sequence. Smith is not first threatening and then retreating. She is campaigning against separation at the same moment the threat of it is delivering concrete results — publishing cost estimates that make secession look ruinous while the pipeline concession those estimates helped secure moves toward approval. The contradiction is not a bug. It is the mechanism. What makes the mechanism work is the certainty that the separatists cannot win. An Angus Reid poll found only 8% of Albertans would definitely vote to leave Canada, while 57% would definitely vote to stay ^[5].

Alberta would risk losing a significant portion of its population. — Angus Reid Institute

The business community has made its position even clearer. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce found 48% of its members would consider relocating if a binding separation vote succeeded ^[6].

I actually looked at that number and my eyebrows went up and I thought, ‘That is a significant number and that would be devastating for Calgary,' — Deborah Yedlin

The Alberta Chambers of Commerce reported that 90% of business respondents who said the separation debate affects the economy called that effect negative ^[6].

This is having an impact, and it is something that they’re concerned about — and it is constraining their decisions around . . . investment and deployment of capital and hiring. — Shauna Feth

These numbers make October's result look strongly likely to favor remaining — though Monte Solberg, the former Conservative cabinet minister running the Vote to Stay campaign, offers a caution that cuts against the numbers ^[7].

It will be imperative that we as committed Canadians come out and vote on Oct. 19, and pull their friends along with them, because we’ve seen past referendums where turnout can be quite low, and there’s a real danger that separatists could do extraordinarily well against the federal aside. — Monte Solberg

That motivation is precisely what gives the separatist threat its credibility. The polling and business opposition are what keep it safe. The numbers deliver both — a movement angry enough to be taken seriously, and outnumbered enough that its defeat looks near-certain. The certainty of defeat is not an obstacle to the threat's political utility. It is the condition that makes the threat safe to wield. Which brings the story back to Rath and the separatists who are beginning to understand the position they occupy. Activists attempted a leadership coup within the UCP after the court ruling quashed their petition ^[3]. Stay Free Alberta leader Mitch Sylvestre insists the benefits will be universal ^[8].

I think every Albertan is going to benefit tremendously from this. — Mitch Sylvestre

The separatists occupy a narrow and unstable position in this arrangement. The movement needs to stay angry enough to be credible but not angry enough to win. It needs to turn out but not in numbers that change the result. It needs to believe in the cause enough to sustain the threat but not enough to break from a premier who chose a remain question over their secession wording, published a $400 billion cost estimate against their project, and used a rival petition to set the terms of the vote. Rath's resignation threat is a sign that the last condition is fraying. The separatists are the one element in this arrangement that no one can control — potent enough to have forced Ottawa's hand, and now angry enough to turn on the premier who wielded them. Whether they accept defeat at the ballot in October or refuse the part they are expected to play is the question the polls cannot answer.