Washington Is Running Two Iran Wars at Once

On the morning of August 16, the whole thing was visible inside a few hours. At 3:30 a.m., Gulf allies were describing the American approach as contradictory ^[1]. An hour later, Donald Trump told a rally he would declare the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States ^[2]. By 5:30, he was describing the posture as low-key, and his vice president had demoted preventing a nuclear Iran to goal number two ^[3]. At 10:03, the Treasury secretary announced economic measures of a kind never seen before ^[4]. At 11:00, an assessment of strategic defeat was published ^[5]. The maximalist posture and the scaled-back goal arrived on the same morning. Five days earlier, Trump had described the blockade in absolute terms ^[6].

The only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy. — Donald Trump

By the weekend he was going further, telling a rally the strait would become American territory ^[2].

After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon, I will be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States. — Donald Trump

While he said this, the actual shipping map was being drawn in Muscat. Iran and Oman finalized an arrangement giving Iran control of inbound traffic and Oman the outbound lane, after three months of technical talks ^[7]. The deal under discussion conceded Iran a northern route and service fees of 3 to 7 percent of cargo value ^[8]. The president claiming an infallible blockade was, through Omani intermediaries, negotiating the terms under which Iran would keep running the strait. Trump said he had obliterated Iran's nuclear program ^[9]. The IAEA's director said the strikes had rolled the program back significantly, but that Iran retains enough 60-percent-enriched uranium for nine or ten bombs and could produce a weapon in under a year ^[9]. The vice president has since redefined the war's primary goal as keeping oil and gas cheap for Americans, with nuclear prevention demoted to goal number two ^[3].

And then obviously goal number two is ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. — JD Vance

The Treasury secretary's measures target exchange houses, overseas assets, refineries, and banks that facilitate Iranian oil exports ^[4]. Officials acknowledge the measures could raise global oil prices — the very outcome the redefined war goal is meant to prevent ^[4]. The pressure posture and the price-stability goal pull against each other. The retreat reads as necessity, not strategy. The missile stockpiles were already running dry ^[10]; by late July advisers warned the military was depleting its arsenal and running out of targets ^[11]. The regime survived even the killing of its supreme leader, which produced a display of national unity rather than collapse ^[12]. By mid-July the tactical losses had not translated into strategic collapse: Iran remained entrenched and in control of its nuclear materials and the strait ^[13]. Regime change was off the table; it had already failed. Iran has arrived at the same place from the other direction. The IRGC adviser Naqdi described the plan plainly ^[14].

One way is to prolong this war until we get to the next term of the presidency and cause attrition, so that if anyone else wants to attack Iran, they will know there is a cost. — Mohammad Reza Naqdi

Robert Malley, the former U.S. envoy, said the economic pressure cannot produce surrender ^[15].

There is no way that this Iranian leadership is going to say, we surrender and we agree to all your demands because you're triangulating our economy or because you're striking us. — Robert Malley

Both sides are now describing the same managed war of attrition — one neither can win decisively but both can sustain. The cost lands on everyone else. Gulf allies express growing frustration with unpredictable policy shifts and the lack of a clear U.S. strategy, and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have signed a mutual defense agreement that diversifies away from Washington ^[1]. Americans are told two things at once. On August 14, Trump framed higher gas prices as a patriotic sacrifice ^[16].

For you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember, you're doing it so that a very evil country cannot have a country. — Donald Trump

Within days, his own vice president had made keeping gas cheap the war's first goal ^[3]. The public justification and the actual priority point in opposite directions. Senator Thom Tillis put the problem in a sentence ^[17].

You can't judge whether or not you're successful unless you set a stake in the ground on exactly what you're trying to accomplish. — Thom Tillis

A senator cannot grade a policy whose public posture and private direction point opposite ways. Six months in, that is the state of the war.