The Sanctions Built to Starve the War Have Been Waived Twice

In March, Russian oil export revenue roughly doubled in a single month — $9.75 billion in February to $19 billion in March, with exports running at 7.1 million barrels a day. ^[1] Standing open across that month was a Treasury waiver on Russian crude and petroleum products, in place from March 12 to April 11 and issued to stabilize energy markets during the Middle East conflicts. It was the first pull of a lever Congress built to do the opposite. The statute is explicit about its aim. The Graham Act, passed 86 to 11 after Zelenskyy asked for it, loads 500 percent duties on Russian imports and tariffs of up to 100 percent on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil, all pointed at a single purpose: cutting off Moscow's war funding. ^[2][3] Representative Gregory Meeks read the bill at passage and saw a door, not a choke.

This is not so much a sanctions bill as it is a massive backdoor authority for President Trump to impose more tariffs, including on our European allies, that hurt American families. — Gregory Meeks

The administration has since pulled that lever twice, both times on energy-price grounds. The first pull did its damage in conjunction with the administration's own war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the campaign against Iran pushed Russian export crude from under $40 a barrel in December to about $62. ^[4]

What is happening today on the European markets is, of course, above all the result of the mistaken policies of European governments in the energy sphere. — Vladimir Putin

That was the mechanism: the Iran war raised the price of Russian oil, and the March waiver let the proceeds run at full volume for a month. Revenue roughly doubled on the administration's watch. The second pull came in mid-October, weeks before the midterms. The executive order certifies the waiver as in the national interest to lower domestic diesel prices before the November 3 election — the reason printed in the instrument itself. ^[5] But the same order enforced the act's Iran provisions while suspending its Russia ones, on the same day: Operation Economic Outcast sanctioned 17 vessels and networks moving Iranian crude, what Treasury called the bulk of the shadow fleet, while the Navy blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. ^[6] And that same day Russia's finance minister was seated back at the G20 finance table. ^[7] The regime was not abandoned; it was re-aimed. Then the administration aimed its other instruments at the one force actually degrading Russian supply. The IEA's finding is that Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports are the main thing reducing Russian oil production.

demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist. — International Energy Agency

Trump's stated logic runs the other way: those strikes raise the world oil price, and the standing threat is to cut intelligence entirely if they continue. ^[8] After a strike on a St. Petersburg terminal, the cutoff was real for three days — a blackout that left Kyiv blind to incoming ballistic missiles — and the throttling of Starlink and Starshield access persists. ^[9] The October pull may move no pump at all: the first shipment is 2.22 million barrels against 3.9 million of daily American diesel consumption, with deliveries landing at or after November 3, and the Energy Department insists the relief would not help Russia move oil products. ^[10][11] The waiver is also unconditional, a window with no Russian step attached. ^[12] So the funding case rests on March and the war's price floor, not on October's barrels — and "re-aimed" stays a reading of the record, not a claim about design. Four days before the waiver, a French boarding party seized the sanctioned shadow-fleet tanker DF Peak. ^[13]

France is determined to fight the shadow fleet, everywhere in the world. — Emmanuel Macron

The same day the waiver was signed, the European Union approved its largest expansion of Russian sanctions since the war began. ^[5] Canada's deputy prime minister has a standing warning that democracies may start avoiding American defense contracts. ^[14] The second pull has its own expiry date: April 7. ^[11] When it comes due, the lever is back in the same hand, and the record now shows twice what that hand does when the price moves.