How the Peace Plan Protected the War

In late June 2026, the United States vetoed a renewed Israeli military offensive in Gaza. The operation, administration officials explained, lacked what they called international legitimacy.

Hamas is strong on the ground, no one is threatening it, and the organization is not prepared to give up control of Gaza — Hamas

In its place, Washington substituted the Board of Peace initiative — a diplomatic framework that would, the argument ran, achieve through negotiation what the offensive could not. ^[1] The substitution did not stop the war. It gave the war a different name. The pattern was set at the start. When the October 2025 ceasefire was signed, it arrived alongside another American decision. Ambassador Mike Huckabee declared that decisions on the E1 settlement corridor in the West Bank were for the government of Israel to make, and the Trump administration reversed sanctions on Israeli settlers. ^[2]

decisions about E1 are "for the government of Israel to make." — Mike Huckabee

The truce and the territorial green light were not contradictory. They were paired. Within weeks, Israeli forces had killed between 80 and 97 Palestinians. ^[3] By late October, Trump was asked about the strikes. His answer established the diplomatic vocabulary that would hold for the next ten months.

They killed an Israeli soldier, so the Israelis hit back, and they should hit back. When that happens, they should hit back. — Donald Trump

The ceasefire was, in this formulation, compatible with military operations — so long as they were framed as retaliation. Nothing, Trump added, was going to jeopardize it. ^[4] Vice President JD Vance refined the language further. When Israeli strikes killed roughly a hundred Palestinians, Vance supplied the term that would become the administration's standard.

The ceasefire is holding. That doesn't mean there aren't going to be little skirmishes here and there. — JD Vance

The administration had developed a lexicon in which violations were not violations. They were the ordinary noise of a truce that was, by definition, intact. By December 2025, more than 350 Palestinians had been killed since the ceasefire, and Israel occupied more than half of Gaza. An assessment that month identified the missing ingredient explicitly: the stability of the region relied on American pressure to ensure Israeli compliance. ^[5] That pressure never came. The US had announced in January that the ceasefire's second phase had begun, even as the violations accumulated. ^[6] By April 2026, the Gaza Government Media Office had documented 2,400 ceasefire violations — 1,109 airstrikes, 921 shooting incidents, 97 military incursions — resulting in 754 Palestinian deaths. ^[6] The diplomatic fiction held: the ceasefire was operational, the process was underway, and the United States was the guarantor of both claims. Then the arc bent further. In July, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a directive that made explicit what the numbers already showed.

My directive is to move to 70% control of the Gaza Strip. — Benjamin Netanyahu

The October ceasefire had established a 53 percent ceiling on Israeli control. Netanyahu was now ordering the military past it, and the US said nothing. That same month, Israel built a 23-kilometer barrier that extended beyond the ceasefire line — 1,300 meters past it in Rafah, 400 meters in Khan Younis. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced permanent military outposts in northern Gaza. The Board of Peace and US Central Command declined to comment. ^[7] The expansion was not confined to Gaza. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich launched what he called a settlement revolution across the West Bank — 13 new settlements approved, a 130 percent increase in settler attacks, 1,175 Palestinians killed in the West Bank since October 2023. ^[8] The peace process in Gaza was running in parallel with the most aggressive settlement expansion in years — both under the same American diplomatic umbrella. On July 30, Trump announced a disarmament deal.

a monumental step toward lasting peace. — Donald Trump

The same week, Israeli military strikes killed dozens of Palestinians. ^[9] The announcement and the escalation were simultaneous — not contradictory, but concurrent. The Board of Peace released its 15-point roadmap on August 1. ^[10] Within days, Netanyahu's office disowned it.

The version that has been made public does not reflect Israel's positions — Doron Spielman

Israel explicitly sought the right to continue military operations in Gaza as a condition of any agreement. The Board of Peace's own sequencing aligned with Israel's demand — withdrawal would occur only once decommissioning was complete — effectively endorsing the circular deadlock that had been the plan's architecture from the start. ^[11] The Board's envoy, Nickolay Mladenov, acknowledged what the framework could not stop.

Two days of strikes across Gaza have killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies that people depend on. — Nickolay Mladenov

The enforcement body was documenting the violations it had no power to halt. ^[12] By August 9, Netanyahu formally rejected the 15-point plan.

Israel rejects the 15-point document. — Benjamin Netanyahu

His office added that no Palestinian state would be established — not in Gaza and not in the West Bank. The US response was to treat the rejection as election politics rather than a diplomatic crisis. There were no consequences. ^[13] The death toll since the October 2025 ceasefire had reached 1,254 — exceeding the approximately 1,200 killed in the initial Hamas-led attacks — including 300 children. ^[12] Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye jointly accused Israel of obstructing the plan. Qatar's spokesman stated that Hamas had committed to everything it was expected to do under the roadmap and that the full responsibility lay on the Israeli side. ^[14] The United States possessed the leverage to enforce compliance. It had demonstrated it twice. In September 2025, Trump personally pressured Netanyahu into accepting the original framework.

Everybody’s sick of you, Bibi. All the Jews are sick of you. Even the two Jews on this call are sick of you. — Donald Trump

It worked. ^[15] In July 2026, Trump pressured Netanyahu into Lebanon withdrawals, and the prime minister complied.

Netanyahu knows who the boss is. — Donald Trump

That pressure was real, and it produced results — when it was applied. ^[16] But on Gaza ceasefire enforcement, the same leverage was never deployed. The December 2025 assessment had named US enforcement as the condition the whole arrangement depended on. It was the one ingredient Washington withheld. ^[5] By the time Netanyahu rejected the plan in August 2026, the political cost of doing so had collapsed. He had diversified alliances with India, and his defense minister had declared that Israel did not ask permission from any party to enter Lebanon and did not need permission to remain. ^[17] The leverage that had compelled Netanyahu's signature in September 2025 had been allowed to dissipate across ten months of violations without cost. The plan did not fail to stop the war. It supplied the international legitimacy the war needed to continue. Under its cover, Israel expanded from 53 to 70 percent control of Gaza, built a 23-kilometer barrier beyond the ceasefire line, launched a settlement revolution across the West Bank, and killed more Palestinians since the truce than died in the attack that preceded it.